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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">infojournal</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Информатика и образование</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Informatics and education</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0234-0453</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2658-7769</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Publishing House Education and Informatics</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.32517/0234-0453-2023-38-4-28-43</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">infojournal-975</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ПЕДАГОГИЧЕСКИЕ ИЗМЕРЕНИЯ И ТЕСТЫ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>PEDAGOGICAL ASSESSMENTS AND TESTS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Прогнозирование результатов обучения студентов с использованием инструментов машинного обучения</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Predicting student performance using machine learning tools</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2330-2963</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Якунин</surname><given-names>Ю. Ю.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Yakunin</surname><given-names>Yu. Yu.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>канд. тех. наук, доцент, зав. базовой кафедрой интеллектуальных систем управления, Институт космических и информационных технологий</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Candidate of Sciences (Engineering), Docent, Head of the Basic Department of Intellectual Control Systems, School of Space and Information Technology</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">yakuninyy@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7737-2900</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Шестаков</surname><given-names>В. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Shestakov</surname><given-names>V. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>канд. филос. наук, доцент кафедры современных образовательных технологий, Институт педагогики, психологии и социологии</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Candidate of Sciences (Philosophy), Associate Professor at the Department of Modern Educational Technologies, School of Education Science, Psycho logy and Sociology</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">vshestakov@sfu-kras.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9663-6481</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Ликсонова</surname><given-names>Д. И.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Liksonova</surname><given-names>D. I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>канд. тех. наук, доцент базовой кафедры интеллектуальных систем управления, Институт космических и информационных технологий</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Candidate of Sciences (Engineering), Associate Professor at the Basic Department of Intellectual Control Systems, School of Space and Information Technology</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">liksonovadi@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9830-5205</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Даничев</surname><given-names>А. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Danichev</surname><given-names>A. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>канд. тех. наук, доцент базовой кафедры интеллектуальных систем управления, Институт космических и информационных технологий</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Candidate of Sciences (Engineering), Associate Professor at the Basic Department of Intellectual Control Systems, School of Space and Information Technology</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">adanichev@sfu-kras.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Сибирский федеральный университет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Siberian Federal University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2023</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>16</day><month>09</month><year>2023</year></pub-date><volume>38</volume><issue>4</issue><fpage>28</fpage><lpage>43</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Якунин Ю.Ю., Шестаков В.Н., Ликсонова Д.И., Даничев А.А., 2023</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2023</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Якунин Ю.Ю., Шестаков В.Н., Ликсонова Д.И., Даничев А.А.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Yakunin Y.Y., Shestakov V.N., Liksonova D.I., Danichev A.A.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://info.infojournal.ru/jour/article/view/975">https://info.infojournal.ru/jour/article/view/975</self-uri><abstract><p>Цифровые помощники все больше проникают в разные области деятельности человека, в том числе и в образовательную. Сегодня это уже не просто автоматизированные системы или веб-приложения, поддерживающие и автоматизирующие некоторые процессы, включая учебный. Сейчас это более интеллектуальные и более автономные системы. Цифровые помощники в жизни студента играют особую роль, в некотором смысле замещая деканат, наставника, тьютора, представителей других служб университета и другие элементы образовательной инфраструктуры. Цифровая поддержка студента важна и полезна, особенно на первом курсе, в период адаптации обучающегося к среде высшего образования, существенно отличающегося от школьного. Именно в этот момент происходит наибольшее количество отчислений студентов по причине академической неуспеваемости. Цифровой помощник в виде мобильного приложения, умеющий спрогнозировать результаты обучения и вовремя проинформировать об этом, по мнению авторов, может оказать важную поддержку для студента и помочь ему сориентироваться и скорректировать свое поведение в случае угрозы негативного результата. Для решения задач по созданию прогнозной модели результатов обучения студентов и соответствующего мобильного приложения, а также для проведения предпроектного исследования были использованы следующие методы и инструменты математической статистики: метод k-средних, метод корреляции Кендалла, критерий Фридмана с апостериорным критерием Дарбина—Коновера, линейная регрессия, логистическая регрессия, категориальный байесовский классификатор, метод случайного леса, нейронная сеть (многослойный перцептрон), непараметрическая оценка функции регрессии Надарая—Ватсона, STATISTICA 10.0 и Jamovi 2.2.5, библиотеки Python. В результате исследования создана математическая модель прогнозирования результатов обучения по дисциплинам на основе текущей успеваемости в электронных образовательных курсах. Точность модели зависит от недели обучения, на которой она применяется, и достигает 92,6 %. На ранних этапах (например, для 7-й недели) точность составляет не ниже 85 % и варьируется в зависимости от контингента студентов и дисциплин. В результате исследования разработано мобильное приложение, реализующее прогнозную модель и другие сопутствующие функции для информирования студента об ожидаемых успехах в обучении. Созданная прогнозная модель основана на текущих данных об успеваемости, получаемых из электронных курсов, и способна делать точный прогноз, что позволяет применять ее на практике в онлайн-режиме и через мобильное приложение информировать обучающегося.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Digital assistants are increasingly penetrating various areas of human activity, including education. Today, they are no longer just automated systems or web applications that support and automate certain processes, including educational processes. Now they are more intelligent and more autonomous systems. Digital assistants play a special role in a student’s life, in a sense replacing the dean’s office, mentor, tutor, representatives of other university services and other elements of educational infrastructure. The digital support for the student is important and useful, especially in the first year during his adaptation to the environment of higher education, which is significantly different from the school one. It is at this point that the largest amount of students dropouts occurs due to academic failure. According to the authors, a digital assistant in the form of a mobile application that can predict learning outcomes and inform about it in time, can provide important support for the student and help him/her orient and adjust his/her behavior in case of a threat of a negative result. To solve the problems of creating a predictive model of student learning outcomes and a mobile application that implements it, as well as to conduct a pre-project study, the following methods and tools of mathematical statistics were used: k-means method, Kendall correlation method, Friedman’ test with Durbin—Conover posterior test, linear regression, logistic regression, categorical Bayesian classifier, random forest method, neural network (multilayer perceptron), non-parametric estimation of the Nadaraya—Watson regression function, STATISTICA 10.0 and Jamovi 2.2.5, Python libraries. As a result of the study, a mathematical model for predicting learning outcomes in disciplines based on current performance in e-learning courses was created. The accuracy of the model depends on the week of training in which it is applied and reaches 92,6 %. In the early stages (e. g., for week 7), the accuracy is at least 85 % and varies depending on the contingent of the student population and disciplines. As a result of the study, a mobile application was developed that implements a predictive model and other related functions to inform the student about his/her estimated educational success. The created predictive model is based on current performance data obtained from electronic courses and is capable of making accurate predictions, which allows it to be applied in practice online and through the mobile application to inform students.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>прогнозирование успеваемости обучающихся</kwd><kwd>прогнозирование результатов обучения</kwd><kwd>анализ образовательных данных</kwd><kwd>метод k-средних</kwd><kwd>непараметрическая ядерная оценка регрессии Надарая—Ватсона</kwd><kwd>машинное обучение</kwd><kwd>классификация обучающихся по успеваемости</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>predicting student performance</kwd><kwd>predicting learning outcomes</kwd><kwd>educational data mining (EDM)</kwd><kwd>k-means method</kwd><kwd>Nadaraya—Watson kernel regression</kwd><kwd>machine learning</kwd><kwd>students’ performance classification</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Alsariera Y. 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